Abstract
Commodity "CAPE ratios" may provide some insight into prospective long-term real commodity price returns, just as equity "CAPE ratios" may provide some insight into prospective long-term real equity returns. A commodity CAPE ratio is simply the inflation-adjusted price, the real price, of a commodity. Above average commodity real prices may suggest below average future real commodity price returns and below average commodity real prices may suggest above average future real commodity price returns. A view, a belief, that a commodity’s real price may be more volatile than its "fundamental value" suggests, but does not prove, that value-oriented commodity strategies may be attractive.
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