COMMERCIAL LOAN INTEREST RATE DETERMINANTS

Abstract

This study aims to analyze which variables affect the commercial loan interest rates that banks use to their customers. The dependent variable used in the study is the commercial loan interest rate, and the independent variables are the inflation rate, deposit interest, dollar rate, and money supply. The data is compiled in CBRT evds sources and the time interval is monthly data between 01/2010-04/2021. The method of the study is the Ardl boundary Test and error correction model used in time series analysis. Within the framework of these models, problems such as trend effect and stasis of series that are frequently encountered in time series analysis were examined. According to the results obtained from the study, the effect of the deposit interest argument on the commercial loan interest rate in the short and long term was greater than that of other variables. It was concluded that inflation, exchange rate and M2 money supply variables had no effect in the long term.The effect of M2 money supply and exchange rate variables on short-term commercial loan interest is significant. It can be said that the effect of the three-period lag value of the exchange rate variable in the short term is also significant.