Comments regarding the use of Monte Carlo method in the analysis of maritime ship maintenance works

Abstract

Elaboration of a mathematical structure, together with a list of correspondences between the mathematical symbols and the objects of the concrete situation considered, led to what is called the mathematical model. The Monte Carlo simulation method is increasingly applied to the analysis of stochastic problems or in conditions of risk, when the same direction of action can have several consequences, the probabilities of which can be estimated. The Monte Carlo simulation can be used to analyze the flow of processes involved in the maintenance works of a ship in a shipyard, because it represents a system characterized by both input and output variables that can interact and therefore the same course of action may have several consequences. Thus, the execution of a certain type of maintenance work on the ship may lead to an increase or decrease in the volume of work initially estimated depending on: class society inspections, limiting the budget for works due to the crisis on the maritime transport market, labor force resources of the shipyard (limited in certain periods with peak load). Consequently, a stochastic model is outlined in which randomness is present, and the states of the variables are not described by unique values, but rather by probability distributions. The paper highlights, through concrete examples, some applications of the Monte Carlo method for the analysis of maintenance works performed for seagoing vessels.