Abstract
Since the 1980s, China's oyster aquaculture has grown quickly in the past four decades, and it became the top mariculture species in China with an annual production of 5.23million in 2019. Understanding the growth of oyster aquaculture in China is important to gain insights into successful long-term production. This paper attempts to decompose China's oyster aquaculture between trends and cycles by means of an HP filter, make a specific identification of the relevant factors according to the Cobb-Douglas production function, to summarize the objective law of yield fluctuations. Results suggest that from 1985 to 2011, China's oyster aquaculture experienced a development stage of "rapid rise - steady development". At this stage, it shows a slow growth trend, and the growth can persist for long periods of time. The improvement of consumption level driven by economic growth is the main facilitating factor to promote the oyster industry, export trade and oyster price are also critical, diseases and disasters did not exert much influence on the growth of China's oyster aquaculture. The biggest problem hindering sustainable development is the tragedy of the commons caused by the limitation of marine resources, the contradiction of development will become a thorny issue.
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