Abstract
Are the courses of fluctuations in economic activity and prices entirely monetary or entirely nonmonetary? One has reason to expect that the answer to that question has been so well understood for so long that it does not require a paper, much less a book or a conference to report the answer. The earliest attempts at systematic thinking about fluctuations recognized wars, crop failures, plagues, weather, and money—real and monetary shocks—as causes of fluctuations. Evidence supported this explanation. Although there was no single accepted formal theory of business-cycle dynamics, few economists have argued that all fluctuations have a unique cause (Haberler 1958).
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