Comments on “Assessing future risk: quantifying the effects of sea level rise on storm surge risk for the southern shores of Long Island, New York,” by Christine C. Shepard, Vera N. Agostini, Ben Gilmer, Tashya Allen, Jeff Stone, William Brooks and Michael W. Beck (Volume 60, Number 2, 727–745, DOI: 10.1007/s11069-011-0046-8)

Abstract

Tide gauge and satellite data indicate that the rate of sea level rise has not increased significantly in response to the last 3/4 century of CO2 emissions, so there is no reason to expect that it will do so in response to the next 3/4 century of CO2 emissions. The best prediction for sea level in the future is simply a linear projection of the history of sea level at the same location in the past. For Long Island, that is about 7-8 inches by 2080.