Abstract

Abstract Two recent articles investigated the evolution of supercell mesocyclone intensity during storm merger events using radar-indicated azimuthal shear. Both found that initially strong mesocyclones tended to weaken while initially weak mesocyclones statistically most frequently tended to intensify during the merger. However, these studies did not include null cases. In this article, random supercell periods are analyzed to test if a similar pattern of mesocyclone intensity variations happens in the absence of mergers. A similar pattern is found, suggesting that these intensity variations are stochastic rather than linked to merger events. Based on this finding, the datasets and conclusions of the previous two articles are reevaluated collaboratively.

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