Comment on “The Prediction of Two Large Earthquakes in Greece”

Abstract

Uyeda and Kamogawa [2008] reported on the VAN experimental method for short‐term earthquake prediction (VAN was named for three Greek physicists, Panayiotis Varotsos, Kessar Alexopoulos, and Konstantine Nomicos), which reportedly recorded seismic electric signals (SESs) before the Mw 6.8 earthquake on 14 February 2008. They claimed that a prediction is documented by P. A. Varotsos et al. (Seismic electric signals and 1/f “noise” in natural time, version 3, 2008; available at http://arxiv.org/abs/0711.3766v3) and in the newspaper Ethnos (10 February 2008; http://www.ethnos.gr/article.asp?catid=11424&subid2&tag=8777&pubid=444473). This claim is unjustified because the prediction was not submitted to Greece's Permanent Special Scientific Committee for the Assessment of Seismic Hazard and the Evaluation of Seismic Risk. According to Greek legislation, the committee is officially charged with analyzing and vetting earthquake hazard assessments (including predictions and ongoing seismic crises) and ultimately advising the government. Through civil protection authorities, the government handles the social, economic, and other negative consequences of impending earthquakes. But perhaps more scientifically grievous, this prediction was not documented elsewhere beforehand.