Abstract

The rate of ocean-driven retreat of Greenland’s tidewater glaciers remains highly uncertain in predictions of future sea level rise, in part due to poorly constrained glacier-adjacent water properties. Icebergs and their meltwater contributions are likely important modifiers of fjord water properties, yet their effect is poorly understood. Here, we use a 3-D ocean circulation model, coupled to a submarine iceberg melt module, to investigate the effect of submarine iceberg melting on glacier-adjacent water properties in a range of idealised settings. Submarine iceberg melting can modify glacier-adjacent water properties in three principle ways: (1) substantial cooling and modest freshening in the upper ~50 m of the water column; (2) warming of Polar Water at intermediate depths due to iceberg melt-induced upwelling of warm Atlantic Water, and; (3) warming of the deeper Atlantic Water layer when vertical temperature gradients through this layer are steep (due to vertical mixing of warm water at depth), but cooling of the Atlantic Water layer when vertical temperature gradients are shallow. The overall effect of iceberg melt is to make glacier-adjacent water properties more uniform with depth. When icebergs extend to, or below, the depth of a sill at the fjord mouth, they can cause cooling throughout the entire water column. All of these effects are more pronounced in fjords with higher iceberg concentrations and deeper iceberg keel depths. These iceberg melt-induced changes to glacier-adjacent water properties will reduce rates of glacier submarine melting near the surface, but increase them in the Polar Water layer, and cause typically modest impacts in the Atlantic Water layer. These results characterise the important role of submarine iceberg melting in modifying ice sheet-ocean interaction, and highlight the need to improve representations of fjord processes in ice sheet-scale models.

Highlights

  • Predicting the rates of ocean-driven retreat of Greenland’s tidewater glaciers remains one of the largest uncertainties in estimating future sea level rise (Edwards et al, 2021; Meredith et al, 2020)

  • The cold, fresh subglacial discharge is buoyant when it enters the fjord, so rises as a turbulent plume (Jenkins, 2011). It entrains fjord water, which mixes with the subglacial discharge as it ascends towards the fjord surface (e.g. Beaird et al, 2018)

  • Plumes at shallowly-grounded glaciers can cause cooling at and near the fjord surface, as cold subglacial discharge and entrained PW is upwelled into surface layers that are seasonally warmed by solar radiation (Carroll et al, 2016)

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Summary

Introduction

Predicting the rates of ocean-driven retreat of Greenland’s tidewater glaciers remains one of the largest uncertainties in estimating future sea level rise (Edwards et al, 2021; Meredith et al, 2020). This uncertainty is partly due to limited constraints on the ocean-driven thermal forcing of tidewater glacier calving fronts, which reflects in part the difficulty in obtaining hydrographic observations in the proximity of tidewater glacier termini (Jackson et al, 2017, 2020; Sutherland et al, 2019). The cold, fresh subglacial discharge is buoyant when it enters the fjord, so rises as a turbulent plume (Jenkins, 2011) As it rises, it entrains fjord water, which mixes with the subglacial discharge as it ascends towards the fjord surface (e.g. Beaird et al, 2018). Models that include glacial plumes are able to reproduce these effects convincingly (Carroll et al, 2016; Cowton et al, 2015; Jackson et al, 2017)

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