Abstract
Debris flow is one of the main causes of life loss and infrastructure damage in mountainous areas, so these hazards must be recognized in the early stage of land development planning. According to field investigation and expert experience, a scientific and effective quantitative susceptibility assessment model was established in Pinggu District of Beijing. This model is based on Geographic Information System (GIS), combining with grey relational method, data-driven and fuzzy logic methods. The inherent influence factors, which are divided into two categories, are selected in the model consistent with the system characteristics of debris flow gully and some new factors are proposed. The results of the 17 models are verified by the results published by the authority, and validated by the other two indexes as well as Area Under Curve (AUC). Through the comparison and analysis of the results, the method to optimize is proposed, including reasonable application of field investigation and expert experience, simplification of factors and scientific classification. Finally, the final optimal susceptibility map with full discussion has the potential to help in determining regional-scale land use planning and debris flow hazard mitigation for decision makers, with full use of insufficient data, scientific calculation, and reliable results. The model has advantages in economically backward areas with insufficient data in mountainous areas.
Highlights
Debris flows are processes of rapid transport of water and soil materials in mountain watersheds, with sudden and destructive outbreaks(Di et al 2019)
Throughout the modeling process, our primary assumption here are as follows: First, while local properties surely affect the timing, size, and behavior of a mass movement, the dominant control on where they occur is the local surface topography, as it in turn defines local slope and shallow subsurface flow convergence; Second, all the evaluated basins have the possibility of debris flow; Thirdly, each evaluation factors should be available for all basins, otherwise, it should be excluded; the model should need to integrate the system characteristics of debris flow disaster, the future development trend of climate change, and the social demand under the theoretical background of the new era to carry out reasonable modeling
It can be seen from the results that the occurrence of debris flow is highly correlated with basin volume, basin area and main gully bending coefficient with fuzzy membership above 0.7 in Beijing area
Summary
Debris flows are processes of rapid transport of water and soil materials in mountain watersheds, with sudden and destructive outbreaks(Di et al 2019). Throughout the modeling process, our primary assumption here are as follows: First, while local properties surely affect the timing, size, and behavior of a mass movement, the dominant control on where they occur is the local surface topography, as it in turn defines local slope and shallow subsurface flow convergence; Second, all the evaluated basins have the possibility of debris flow; Thirdly, each evaluation factors should be available for all basins, otherwise, it should be excluded; the model should need to integrate the system characteristics of debris flow disaster, the future development trend of climate change, and the social demand under the theoretical background of the new era to carry out reasonable modeling
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