Abstract
QuestionIs the Swedish Crime Harm Index as presented and corrected in this Journal as reported by Kärrholm et al. Cambridge Journal of Evidence-Based Policing (2020a, b) a valid method for studying the long-term development of crime and of the harm caused by crime?DataCited publications in this journal, Swedish crime statistics, and other evidence on historical changes in Swedish crime reporting.MethodsDocumentation of the ways in which crime counting in different categories has changed over time in Sweden.FindingsThe authors do not seem to have considered important aspects of the way the Swedish crime statistics are assembled. An overestimation of the increase in cases of homicide and of the penalty value of offenses that do not usually result in custodial sentences are two examples. The authors also fail to consider legislation that criminalizes previously unpunished (harmful) behavior.ConclusionThe historical CHI, as it has been constructed by Kärrholm et al. is not an appropriate method for studying the long-term development of crime and of the harm caused by crime. In a time of net-widening and increasing punitiveness in the justice system, the CHI will show an increase even with no change in actual crime behavior. A simple measure of the current harm caused by crime may be useful for short-term analysis, planning, and the evaluation of police efforts, but it is inadequate as a means of studying the longitudinal development of the crime problem. In the calculation of CHI, harm caused by crimes that do not lead to imprisonment should also be included.
Highlights
This comment constitutes an assessment of the 2020 Kärrholm et al articles in this journal on “Developing the Swedish Crime Harm Index: An Evidence-Based Strategy.” In their article as corrected, the authors propose how a Swedish Crime Harm Index (CHI) can be constructed using (1) a measure that functions as a proxy for the harm caused to society by different types of crime, and (2) a measure of how many crimes of different types are committed
Cambridge Journal of Evidence-Based Policing (2021) 5:76–90
As police reports of several of these crime categories have increased in recent decades, this is probably one of the explanations as to why the Swedish CHI is increasing sharply according to Kärrholm et al Calculating Means with Zeros One way to solve this problem is presented by Statistics Canada (2009) in the construction of their Crime Severity Index, where consideration is given to the penalty value of crimes punished with imprisonment and in incarceration rate
Summary
Findings The authors do not seem to have considered important aspects of the way the Swedish crime statistics are assembled. Conclusion The historical CHI, as it has been constructed by Kärrholm et al is not an appropriate method for studying the long-term development of crime and of the harm caused by crime. In a time of net-widening and increasing punitiveness in the justice system, the CHI will show an increase even with no change in actual crime behavior. A simple measure of the current harm caused by crime may be useful for short-term analysis, planning, and the evaluation of police efforts, but it is inadequate as a means of studying the longitudinal development of the crime problem. In the calculation of CHI, harm caused by crimes that do not lead to imprisonment should be included.
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