Abstract
A strategy to simulate rainfall by the means of different Multiplicative random Cascades (MRC) was developed to evaluate their applicability to produce inputs for green roof infrastructures models taking into account climate change. The MRC reproduce a (multi)fractal distribution of precipitation through an iterative and multiplicative random process. The initial model was improved with a temperature dependency and an additional function to improve its capability to reproduce the temporal structure of rainfall. The structure of the models with depth and temperature dependency was found to be applicable in eight locations studied across Norway (N) and France (F). The resulting time-series from both reference period and projection based on RCP 8.5 were applied to two green roofs (GR) with different properties. The different models lead to a slight change in the performance of GR, but this was not significant compared to the range of outcomes due to ensemble uncertainty in climate modelling and the stochastic uncertainty due to nature of the process. The moderating effect of the green infrastructure was found to decrease in most of the Norwegian cities, especially Bergen (N), while increasing in Lyon (F).
Highlights
Hydrologic performance of stormwater Green Infrastructure (GI) is usually divided between Retention and Detention
A strategy to simulate rainfall by the means of different Multiplicative random Cascades (MRC) was developed to evaluate their applicability to produce inputs for green roof infrastructures models taking into account climate change
Length 205 of the dry periods influences the retention performance as it can lead to water stress hindering evapotranspiration
Summary
Hydrologic performance of stormwater Green Infrastructure (GI) is usually divided between Retention and Detention. Retention refers to water stored, infiltrated, or evapotranspirated. Evapotranspiration process time-scale is typically 24 hours or less. Detention refers to water temporarily stored in the GI before being discharged into a downstream stormwater network. The process time-scale is typically a few minutes. Modelling GI detention performance requires higher resolution data to estimate its outflow (Schilling, 1991). Both high resolution climate data and projections at sub daily and sub hourly scales are needed in order to model GIs, and to estimate their potential as a climate change adaptation measure.
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