Abstract
Understanding and quantifying the influence of climate change on past extreme weather impacts is vital for climate litigation, the loss and damage debate, and for building more accurate models to assess future impacts. However, the effects of climate change are obscured in the observed impact data series due to the rapid evolution of the social and economic circumstances in which the extreme events occurred. The model and data presented in this study (HANZE v2.0) aims at quantifying the evolution of key socioeconomic drivers in Europe since 1870, namely land use, population, economic activity and assets. It consists of algorithms to reallocate baseline (2011) land use and population for any given year based on a large collection of historical subnational- and national-level statistics, and then disaggregate data on production and tangible assets by economic sector into a high-resolution grid. Maps generated by the model enable reconstructing exposure within the footprint of any extreme event both at the time of the event and in any other moment in the past 150 years. This allows the separation of the effects of climate change from the effects of exposure change. In addition, HANZE v2.0 can be used for assessing socio-economic influences on hazard (e.g. effects of land use-change on hydrological extremes) and vulnerability (e.g. the changing structure of assets at risk).
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