Abstract

Anthropogenic land-use and land cover change (LULCC) is a major driver of environmental changes. The biophysical impacts of these changes on the regional climate in Europe are currently extensively investigated within the WCRP CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study (FPS) LUCAS – "Land Use and Climate Across Scales" using an ensemble of different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) coupled with diverse Land Surface Models (LSMs). In order to investigate the impact of realistic LULCC on past and future climates, high-resolution datasets with observed LULCC and projected future LULCC scenarios are required as input for the RCM-LSM simulations. To account for these needs, we generated the LUCAS LUC Version 1.0 at 0.1° resolution for Europe Hoffmann et al. (2021b,c). The plant functional type distribution for the year 2015 (i.e. LANDMATE PFT dataset) is derived from the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative Land Cover (ESA-CCI LC) dataset. Details about the conversion method based on a cross-walking procedure and the evaluation of the LANDMATE PFT dataset are given in the companion paper by Reinhart et al. (submitted). Subsequently, we applied the land-use change information from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) dataset, provided at 0.25° resolution as input for CMIP6 experiments, to derive realistic LULC distribution at high spatial resolution and at annual timesteps from 1950 to 2100. In order to convert land use and land management change information from LUH2 into changes in the PFT distribution, we developed a Land Use Translator (LUT) specific to the needs of RCMs. The annual PFT maps for Europe for the period 1950 to 2015 are derived from the historical LUH2 dataset by applying the LUT backward from 2015 to 1950. Historical changes in the forest type changes are considered using an additional European forest species dataset. The historical changes in the PFT distribution of LUCAS LUC follow closely the land use changes given by LUH2 but differ in some regions compared to remotely-sensed PFT time series. From 2016 onward, annual PFT maps for future land use change scenarios based on LUH2 are derived for different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) combinations used in the framework of the Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The resulting LULCC maps can be applied as land use forcing to the next generation of RCM simulations for downscaling of CMIP6 results. The newly developed LUT is transferable to other CORDEX regions world-wide.

Highlights

  • 25 Human land surface modifications through land use are an important forcing on climate, and its direct biophysical effects on the local and regional climate can exceed those associated with global greenhouse gas forcing

  • We introduce the new high-resolution Land Use and Climate Across Scales (LUCAS) LUC historical/future land use and land cover change dataset (Version 1.0) (Hoffmann et al, 2021c, b), which we prepared to meet the requirements for the generation Regional Climate Models (RCMs) simulations 90 for downscaling Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) by the EURO-CORDEX community and in the framework of Flagship Pilot Study (FPS) LUCAS

  • The historical trends in the LUCAS LUC plant functional types (PFTs) are compared to the trends in the European Space Agency (ESA)-CCI based PFT time series (i.e. ESA POULTER, Sect. 3.1.1) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) PFT time series (Sect. 3.1.2)

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Summary

Introduction

25 Human land surface modifications through land use are an important forcing on climate, and its direct biophysical effects on the local and regional climate can exceed those associated with global greenhouse gas forcing (de Noblet-Ducoudré et al, 2012). Robust fine-scale LULCC reconstructions are needed to inform simulation experiments to quantify the interaction between regional and local biogeochemical and biophysical processes, which may support effective land-use based climate adaptation as well as mitigation measures. In the phases of LUCAS and within EURO-CORDEX (Jacob et al, 2020), it is planned to conduct simulations with 40 past and future land-use changes on horizontal resolutions of 12.5 km down to the kilometer scale. This approach poses new requirements for LULCC reconstructions and scenarios: 1) A high spatial resolution (1 km and below) over a spatial domain that covers the entire EURO-CORDEX domain. The high spatial resolution is needed such that regional details are well resolved, which enables investigating the impact of LULCC on small-scale processes such as local wind systems, convection, boundary layer processes, and scale-interactions

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