Abstract

<strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor">Abstract.</strong> Uncertainty in the effective radiative forcing (ERF) of climate primarily arises from the unknown contribution of aerosols, which impact radiative fluxes directly and through modifying cloud properties. Climate model simulations with fixed sea surface temperatures but perturbed atmospheric aerosol loadings allow for an estimate of how strongly the planet&rsquo;s radiative energy budget has been perturbed by the increase in aerosols since pre-industrial times. The approximate partial radiative perturbation (APRP) technique further decomposes the contributions to the direct forcing from aerosol scattering and absorption, and to the indirect forcing from aerosol-induced changes in cloud scattering, amount, and absorption, as well as the effects of aerosols on surface albedo. Here we evaluate previously published APRP-derived estimates of aerosol effective radiative forcings from these simulations and find that they are slightly biased as a result of large but compensating errors. These biases are largest for the aerosol direct effect owing to underestimated aerosol absorption. Correcting these biases eliminates the residuals and leads to better agreement with ground-truth estimates derived from double-calls to the radiation code. The APRP method &ndash; when properly implemented &ndash; remains a highly accurate and efficient technique for diagnosing aerosol ERF in cases where double radiation calls are not available, and in all cases it provides quantification of the individual contributors to the ERF that are highly useful but not otherwise available.

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