Abstract
Annual and seasonal temperature, precipitation and drought index (SPI, SPEI, Z-index, PDSI) series covering the Czech Lands territory (now the Czech Republic) over 520 years (1501–2020 CE) reconstructed from documentary data combined with instrumental observations were analysed herein. The temperature series exhibits a statistically significant increasing trend, rising from ~1890 and particularly from the 1970s; 1991–2020 represents the warmest and driest 30-year period since 1501 CE. While the long-term precipitation total fluctuations (and derived SPI fluctuations) remain relatively stable with annual and decadal variabilities, past temperature increases are the key factor affecting recent increasing dryness in the SPEI, Z-index and PDSI series. The seasonal temperature series represent a broad European area, while the seasonal precipitation series show lower spatial correlations. A statistical attribution analysis conducted utilizing regression and wavelet techniques confirmed the influence of covariates related to volcanic activity (prompting temporary temperature decreases, especially during summer) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (influential in all seasons except summer) in the Czech climate reconstructions. Furthermore, components tied to multidecadal variabilities in the northern Atlantic and northern Pacific were identified in the temperature and precipitation series and in the drought indices, revealing notable shared oscillations, particularly at periods of approximately 70–100 years.
Highlights
35 Documentary evidence about weather and related phenomena is broadly used for different types of studies in historical climatology (e.g., Brázdil et al, 2005, 2010; White et al, 2018; Pfister and Wanner, 2021)
For the wettest 30 years, the Z-index and PDSI agreed with the precipitation series during 1912–1941, while in the SPEI it was already in the second half of the 16th century (1569–1598)
6 Conclusions From the analysis of 520-year series of reconstructed temperature, precipitation and drought indices based on documentary data and instrumental observations in the Czech Lands, the following conclusions can be summarized: 45 (i) All Czech temperature reconstructions regardless of the season and the proxy data used show the exceptionality of high temperatures in the last three decades in the context of the past 500 years
Summary
35 Documentary evidence about weather and related phenomena is broadly used for different types of studies in historical climatology (e.g., Brázdil et al, 2005, 2010; White et al, 2018; Pfister and Wanner, 2021). To describe temperature and precipitation patterns, temperature and precipitation indices were involved and used to create their long-term series, using most broadly 3- or 7-degree scales for the individual months (Pfister, 1992) and 40 other degree scales (see Nash et al, 2021 for overview). Many temperature/precipitation index series have been published in Europe, such as those for Switzerland (Pfister, 1988, 1999), the central part of European Russia (Lyakhov, 1992), central Europe (Glaser et al, 1999), the Low Countries (Shabalova and van Engelen, 2003; van Engelen et al, 2009), Germany (Glaser, 2008), the Mediterranean (Camuffo et al, 2010), Burgundian Low 45 Countries (Camenisch, 2015), Gdansk, Poland (Filipiak et al, 2019), Buchlovice, Czech Lands (Brázdil et al, 2019), Sweden (Retsö and Söderberg, 2020), western and central Europe (Pfister and Wanner, 2021), and others.
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