Abstract
Abstract The objective prediction technique presented by Preisendorfer and Mobley called the Probable Markover (or contingency method) is studied in some detail with a much longer dataset than that available for the previous work. It is pointed out and then clearly demonstrated how the scheme as originally reported enjoys two artificial advantages over other objective and “humon” approaches. These advantages lead to considerable overestimation of its realizable skill relative to the other methods. In fact when placed in the position of other forecasters, namely with no prior knowledge of the future, it fails to produce sets of forecasts distinguishable from random ones. The reasons for this are discussed through example and through its theoretical relationship to simple persistence forecasts.
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