Abstract
We report on updated trends using different merged zonal mean total ozone datasets from satellite and ground-based observations for the period from 1979 to 2020. This work is an update from the trends reported in Weber et al. (2018) using the same datasets up to 2016. Merged datasets used in this study include NASA MOD v8.7 and NOAA Cohesive Data (COH) v8.6, both based on data from the series of Solar Backscatter UltraViolet (SBUV), SBUV-2, and Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) satellite instruments (1978–present) as well as the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME)-type Total Ozone (GTO-ECV) and GOME-SCIAMACHY-GOME-2 (GSG) merged datasets (both 1995–present), mainly comprising satellite data from GOME, SCIAMACHY, OMI, GOME-2A, -2B, and TROPOMI. The fifth dataset consists of the annual mean zonal mean data from ground-based measurements collected at the World Ozone and UV Radiation Data Center (WOUDC). Trends were determined by applying a multiple linear regression (MLR) to annual mean zonal mean data. The addition of four more years consolidated the fact that total ozone is indeed on slowly recovering in both hemispheres as a result of phasing out ozone depleting substances (ODS) as mandated by the Montreal Protocol. The near global ozone trend of the median of all datasets after 1996 was 0.5 ± 0.2 (2σ) %/decade, which is in absolute numbers roughly a third of the decreasing rate of 1.4 ± 0.6 %/decade from 1978 until 1996. The ratio of decline and increase is nearly identical to that of the EESC (equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine or stratospheric halogen) change rates before and after 1996 which confirms the success of the Montreal Protocol. The observed trends are also in very good agreement with the median of 17 chemistry climate models from CCMI (Chemistry Climate Model Initiative) with current ODS and GHG (greenhouse gas) scenarios. The positive ODS related trends in the NH after 1996 are only obtained with a sufficient number of terms in the MLR accounting properly for dynamical ozone changes (Brewer-Dobson circulation, AO, AAO). A standard MLR (limited to solar, QBO, volcanic, and ENSO) leads to zero trends showing that the small positive ODS related trends have been balanced by negative trend contributions from atmospheric dynamics resulting in nearly constant total ozone levels since 2000.
Highlights
The stratospheric ozone layer protects the biosphere from harmful UV radiation
One of the actions was the signing of the Montreal Protocol in 1987 that started the phaseout of ozone depleting substances (ODS), which are sufficiently long-lived to reach the stratosphere and release active halogens that destroy ozone (e.g. Solomon, 1999)
When properly accounting for dynamical changes via atmospheric circulation and transport, these retrieved trends may be interpreted as recovery trends related to changes in the stratospheric halogens as a response to the Montreal
Summary
The stratospheric ozone layer protects the biosphere from harmful UV radiation. How much UV reaches the surface depends, among other factors like clouds, on the overhead total ozone column. The rapid increase in northern hemisphere total ozone in the late 1990s (Harris et al, 2008) revealed the important role of ozone transport via the Brewer-Dobson (BD) circulation These circulation changes cause large variability on inter- and intra-annual time scales in lower stratospheric ozone and the total column (e.g. Fusco and Salby, 1999; Randel et al, 2002; Dhomse et al, 2006; Harris et al, 2008; Weber et al, 2011) and make detection of ozone recovery challenging. This paper reports on updated zonal mean total ozone trends from Weber et al (2018) (abbreviated to W18 in the following) by adding four more years of data (2017-2020) to five merged total ozone datasets. Latitude and longitude 62 dependent total ozone trends are reported by Coldewey-Egbers et al (2021) derived from the ESA/DLR GTO-ECV dataset, which is one of the five observational datasets used in this study. By vertical integration many of the layer adjustments to a large extent cancel such that the final total ozone product is altered by less than 1%, and in most cases by less than 0.5%, from the original satellite datasets
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