Abstract
1. It addresses the importance of expert elicitation in systems design and the statistical and practical chal lenges faced when trying to use expert judgements in a way that is consistent with established ap proaches based on statistical reliability testing. 2. It rightly focuses our attention on the need for a holistic approach to reliability evaluation that goes beyond analysis of single projects to also include in formation from softer sources such as design and operational use. 3. It recognizes the emerging importance of Bayesian methods in providing the uncertainty calculus to combine evidence from experts with statistical re liability data in such a way that system reliability assessments and forecasts can grow and evolve as a system changes throughout its life.
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