COMESA Migration Flows: Evidence from Top-5 Inflows and Outflows

Abstract

While migration out of the African continent seems more visible given the attention it receives based on recent debates mostly shaped by the media, intra-African migration and inter-state migration in Africa is large owing to the numbers involved in absolute terms. This study considers the Top-5 inflows and the reciprocal top five outflows by each COMESA country. Utilizing the gravity model of migration, the study sought to predict the degree of migration interaction. Focusing on the COMESA region integration block (21 countries), this study examined its Top-5 inflows and outflows migrations. Using national data migration flows statistics available from migrationdataportal.org for the year 2010. The statistics defines an international migrant as an individual who has a different usual country of residence in 2010 compared with 2005. These statistics were estimated by combining country-to-country international flows with estimates of 5-year internal migration flows. The study estimated an empirical model as a measure for both Inflows and Outflows to better understand the COMESA migration flows as a part of intra-African migration and consider the factors may explain changes in the volumes and the direction of these changes in migrations. The study finds that; there is significant reciprocity between COMESA inflows and outflows, the common border and the common 2nd/ethnic language significantly influences both COMESA inflows and outflows, and the Political Stability negatively influences COMESA inflows and outflows, notably, however, the distance between countries neither influences COMESA Inflows nor Outflows.