Combining two approaches of integrated scenario development to combat desertification in the Guadalentín watershed, Spain

Abstract

Desertification in Spain is a largely society-driven process, which can be managed effectively only through an understanding of environmental, sociocultural, and economic driving forces. This calls for a more active role of decision makers and other stakeholders. We present two promising approachesparticipatory stakeholder workshops and a spatial policy support system (PoSS)ˆto develop future scenarios of land-use change for a watershed in Spain. We furthermore discuss the efforts involved and the added values of combining both methods. Based on two local workshops, three scenarios were constructed, which were subsequently formalised, parameterised, and quantified. We conclude that there are large advantages of linking narrative storylines and a spatial PoSS. Storylines ensure an active participation of a large range of stakeholders, additionally offering the possibility to develop highly integrated scenarios. The PoSS provides a spatially detailed and quanti- tative output, that can also be used to check the internal consistency of the qualitative scenarios. Linking stories and models can thus open the way for more successful management strategies to combat land degradation.