Combining Standard Artificial Intelligence Models, Pre-Processing Techniques, and Post-Processing Methods to Improve the Accuracy of Monthly Runoff Predictions in Karst-Area Watersheds

Abstract

The complex and unique topography of karst regions highlights the weaknesses of traditional hydrological models which fail to fully generalize them. The successive proposals of standard artificial intelligence (AI) models, pre-processing techniques, and post-processing methods have provided new opportunities to enhance the accuracy of runoff prediction in karst areas. In this study, first, the BP neural network model and the Elman neural network model were used for runoff prediction. Then, the performance of four coupled models—formed by combining two AI pre-processing techniques, Empirical Modal Decomposition (EMD) and Ensemble Empirical Modal Decomposition (EEMD), with the previously mentioned AI models—was investigated. Finally, the accuracy of triple-coupled models, formed by applying the post-processing method of quantile mapping (QM) to the previous coupled models, was estimated. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), the root mean square error (RMSE), and the peak percentage of threshold statistics (PPTS) were selected to evaluate and analyze the forecasting results of the above models. The results demonstrated that the BP model had the best prediction effect of the standard AI models, the coupled forecasting models had better prediction accuracy than the standard AI models, and the triple-coupled QM–EMD–Elman model had the best forecasting effect with an NSE value of 0.73, MAPE value of 0.75, RMSE value of 34.60, and PPTS value of 2.36.