Combining multicriteria decision analysis and GIS to assess vulnerability within a protected area: An objective methodology for managing complex and fragile systems

Abstract

Characterizing zone fragility is a significant challenge when managing natural areas, but it must be prioritized in conservation efforts. The most commonly employed methodology is to rely on criteria established by experts, which can introduce subjectivity. However, more objective approaches should be used when developing conservation plans. This study follows one methodology focusing on classifying zone vulnerability within a protected natural area, taking as a study case a temporal pond network located in SW Spain; threatened aquatic plants were used as a bioindicators. Spatial data were analyzed using geographic information systems (GIS), and potentially vulnerable zones were identified using multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) and, more specifically, the weighted overlay method. Criteria weights were determined by variables contribution obtained through species distribution models (SDM), via the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt). The purpose was to avoid artificial bias in decision-making. The analysis indicated that 42.04% of the study area was highly vulnerable. In contrast, only the 14.34% of the study area was at very low risk, meaning it can help maintain pond network biodiversity. These results indicate that potentially vulnerable and crucial zones can be identified using GIS, facilitating the establishment of conservation priorities in a complex system. This methodology could be useful for prioritizing and implementing management and conservation efforts focused on unique species and habitats in protected natural areas.