Combining monthly wind and inflow uncertainties in the stochastic dual dynamic programming

Abstract

AbstractFollowing a global trend, intermittent sources, especially wind, have been experiencing accelerated growth in Brazil—in the last decade, wind power grew 13 times and became the second largest source in the electricity mix (12%), just behind hydropower (60%). Currently, although following regulatory guidelines, the representation of wind power in the long-term operation planning model is done in a simplified way, based on the monthly average of the last five years of aggregated generation, thus demanding improvements. The objective of this work is to describe an approach to be used by the Brazilian power industry to represent the uncertainties of monthly wind power production in the SDDP algorithm applied in the long-term operation planning model, keeping the large-scale stochastic problem still computationally viable, when applied to large interconnected systems, especially with hydroelectric predominance. The proposed methodology comprises statistical clustering of wind regimes and definition of equivalent wind farms; evaluation of monthly transfer functions between wind speed and power production; integrated generation of monthly multivariate synthetic scenarios of inflows and winds, considering associated cross-correlations; and representing monthly wind power in the SDDP algorithm. The application to real configurations of the Brazilian interconnected system, including case studies related to the monthly operation program and the calculation of the maximum amount of energy that can be traded in long-term power purchase agreements, points to its effectiveness and the relevance of modeling the wind uncertainties in the long-term operation planning of large hydro-dominated systems.