Abstract

Coral reefs worldwide face an uncertain future with many reefs reported to transition from being dominated by corals to macroalgae. However, given the complexity and diversity of the ecosystem, research on how regimes vary spatially and temporally is needed. Reef regimes are most often characterised by their benthic components; however, complex dynamics are associated with losses and gains in both fish and benthic assemblages. To capture this complexity, we synthesised 3,345 surveys from Hawai‘i to define reef regimes in terms of both fish and benthic assemblages. Model-based clustering revealed five distinct regimes that varied ecologically, and were spatially heterogeneous by island, depth and exposure. We identified a regime characteristic of a degraded state with low coral cover and fish biomass, one that had low coral but high fish biomass, as well as three other regimes that varied significantly in their ecology but were previously considered a single coral dominated regime. Analyses of time series data reflected complex system dynamics, with multiple transitions among regimes that were a function of both local and global stressors. Coupling fish and benthic communities into reef regimes to capture complex dynamics holds promise for monitoring reef change and guiding ecosystem-based management of coral reefs.

Highlights

  • To date, regime shifts on coral reefs have largely been described based on changes in benthic community structure

  • Our results revealed five distinct regimes based on model-based cluster analysis of 10 variables, representing fish and benthic functional groups, from a total of 3,345 reef surveys across the Hawaiian archipelago

  • Regime 1 was characteristised with overall low coral cover and low fish biomass, and a benthos characterised by turf algae, Figure 2

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Summary

Introduction

Regime shifts on coral reefs have largely been described based on changes in benthic community structure. Large-scale studies across the Pacific highlight the variability in cover of coral, crustose coralline algae, and macroalgae regardless of human population status[24], and that inhabited and uninhabited islands are better differentiated by the cumulative cover of fleshy versus calcifying benthic organisms[25]. Together, these studies highlight the value of defining reef regimes beyond the binary view of coral versus macroalgae. We investigate variation across time within sites to explore the diversity of transitional pathways among regimes to illuminate our understanding of reef dynamics

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