Combining favorability modeling with collaborative geo‐visual analysis to improve agricultural pest management

Abstract

AbstractIn this article, we explore the potential of combining favorability modeling with collaborative geo‐visual analysis to determine when and where to apply countermeasures for the olive fruit fly. The favorability function estimates locations and times at which the conditions favor a species exceeding acceptable abundance levels, thus becoming a pest. We built two models based on monitoring data for the olive fruit fly in Andalusia, Spain. The models were used in a geo‐visual analytics prototype to produce map series for the seasons 2012 to 2018, and to explore the models’ outputs collaboratively with stakeholders. Results showed that the models capture known species’ dynamics, but tend to overpredict favorable conditions for pest development. Discussions with stakeholders indicate that the prototype facilitates the communication and discussion of modeling results between researchers, authorities, and field technicians, which also enables a better understanding of the pest dynamics, and the planning and execution of control activities.