Combining exploratory scenarios and participatory backcasting: using an agent-based model in participatory policy design for a multi-functional landscape.

Derek B. Van Berkel,Peter H. Verburg

doi:10.1007/s10980-012-9730-7

Abstract

While the merits of local participatory policy design are widely recognised, limited use is made of model-based scenario results to inform such stakeholder involvement. In this paper we present the findings of a study using an agent based model to help stakeholders consider, discuss and incorporate spatial and temporal processes in a backcasting exercise for rural development. The study is carried out in the Dutch region called the Achterhoek. Region-specific scenarios were constructed based on interviews with local experts. The scenarios are simulated in an agent based model incorporating rural residents and farmer characteristics, the environment and different policy interventions for realistic projection of landscape evolution. Results of the model simulations were presented to stakeholders representing different rural sectors at a workshop. The results indicate that illustration of the spatial configuration of landscape changes is appreciated by stakeholders. Testing stakeholders’ solutions by way of model simulations revealed that the effectiveness of local interventions is strongly related to exogenous processes such as market competition and endogenous processes like local willingness to engage in multifunctional activities. The integration of multi-agent modelling and participatory backcasting is effective as it offers a possibility to initiate discussion between experts and stakeholders bringing together different expertise.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10980-012-9730-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Highlights

Rural areas have long been recognised for their multifunctional character ‘supplying’ the goods and services that sustain human societies (MA, 2005)
In this paper we present the findings of a study using an agent based model to help stakeholders consider, discuss and incorporate spatial and temporal processes in a backcasting exercise for rural development
We address two main research questions in reporting our case study experience: (a) Are models useful for improving participatory backcasting formulations in stakeholders workshops; and (b) What insight can be gained in using forecasting models to test solutions derived from backcasting exercises?

Summary

Introduction

Rural areas have long been recognised for their multifunctional character ‘supplying’ the goods and services that sustain human societies (MA, 2005). Disturbance of natural systems due to intensive agricultural production, alteration of cultural landscapes and land abandonment highlight problematic trajectories for rural environmental sustainability and social functioning The prevention of these developments has become increasingly linked to effective management of human and natural resources at local scales (Van der Ploeg et al 2000; Marsden and Sonnino 2008; Wilson 2010). Complexity originates from different societal demands, rural actors’ decisions, policy and institutional settings and environmental capacities that determine the feasibility of wished developments Knowledge of these spatial and temporal processes is an important part of understanding regional trajectories and, for formulating sound interventions in the face of problematic trends (Wilson 2010)

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion