Combining discrete choice and informed sensory testing in a two-stage process: Can it predict wine market share?

Abstract

An online discrete choice experiment was combined with a separate informed sensory hedonic test in a two-stage process to understand the interplay of wine sensory characteristics and extrinsic attributes such as packaging, price and brand awareness. This approach simulated the process of a consumer choosing a product from the shelf, tasting the product, and making a repurchase decision. The response measures were validated by relating them to market sales data. Twenty-one commercial Australian Shiraz red wines were characterised by a trained sensory panel. Four hundred and twenty-six regular wine consumers chose a wine for a dinner with friends from simulated shelves of the wines represented by photographs. Their choices were mainly a result of extrinsic wine attributes and the frequency of choice was found to be highly related to a wine’s market share. The same consumers evaluated liking and made a repurchase decision in a central location tasting in an incomplete design, which included photos of each of the 21 wines. Price was found to be a strong positive driver of informed liking, and liking did not relate to the sales volume or to the initial choice in the online experiment. In contrast, the previously measured online choice was a strong predictor for repurchase with tasting, confirming that both product expectations at the initial purchase and intrinsic sensory attributes during product consumption substantially influence the repurchase decision. A number of common sensory characteristics were also positively and negatively related to both liking and repurchase intent. The study provided an insight into the relative importance of product expectation and actual sensory experience on informed repurchase intent. The combination of the discrete choice methodology with sensory descriptive data and consumer sensory testing shows promise.