Abstract
An agro-ecological approach is presented for the evaluation of alternative management options for rice production in the light of farmers attitudes towards risk. The approach combined eco-physiological crop growth modelling with stochastic dominance theory and is illustrated for a case study of rainfed lowland rice in Victoria, Tarlac Province, the Philippines. The eco-physiological rice growth model ORYZA_W was used to estimate probability distributions of rice yields under different management scenarios. Relatively simple management options were considered for soils with different water storage capacities: plant density; seedling age at transplanting; bund height; and puddled soil depth. Stochastic dominance analysis was applied to identify risk-efficient management options. A critical appraisal of the proposed agro-ecological method for risk-analysis is given and suggestions are made for refinement and further research.
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