Abstract
Design-flood elevations with associated exceedance probabilities are often determined for coastal projects. Rising sea level introduces another design consideration that needs to be combined with the design-flood level. However, most sea level projections do not have exceedance probabilities that can be used in conjunction with the design flood to obtain total flood elevations with exceedance probabilities. This paper shows how to combine design-flood elevations with sea level rise projections that have exceedance probabilities, such as those of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (Bindoff et al 2007) or Houston (2012a), to obtain total elevations at desired exceedance probabilities over particular intervals.
Highlights
There is a wide range of sea level forecasts to 2100
This paper shows how to combine design-flood elevations with sea level rise projections that have exceedance probabilities, such as those of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (Bindoff et al 2007) or Houston (2012a), to obtain total elevations at desired exceedance probabilities over particular intervals
A survey by Nichols et al (2011) shows that recent projections of sea level rise by 2100 have typically been 1-2 m with Greenland and Antarctica being the greatest contributors. Differences between these projections and those of IPCC are typically attributed to IPCC not having fully having considered contributions from Greenland and Antarctica, even though differences generally are much greater than - 0.01 to 0.17 m
Summary
There is a wide range of sea level forecasts to 2100. The Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC, Bindoff et al 2007) forecast an upper limit of sea level rise from 1990 to 2100 of 0.59 m at the 95%-confidence level. Design-flood elevations with associated exceedance probabilities are often determined for coastal projects. This paper shows how to combine design-flood elevations with sea level rise projections that have exceedance probabilities, such as those of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (Bindoff et al 2007) or Houston (2012a), to obtain total elevations at desired exceedance probabilities over particular intervals.
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