Combined model of air quality index forecasting based on the combination of complementary empirical mode decomposition and sequence reconstruction

Abstract

One of the most important issues that cities face is air pollution. In this study, a novel integrated forecasting model of the air quality index (AQI) is suggested to carry out reliable prediction, providing useful references for urban air pollution control, public health construction, and residents' travel planning. Firstly, the original data is decomposed by the method of complementary set empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD), and the subsequences of different frequencies are formed. Secondly, the fuzzy entropy (FE) algorithm is used to reconstruct the subsequence. Then, the combined forecasting model is established, and different prediction methods are selected for different frequency subsequences. The new high-frequency sequences, low-frequency sequences, and trend sequences are predicted by the whale algorithm optimized long short term neural network (WOA-LSTM) and the extreme learning machine (ELM), respectively. Empirical analysis are carried out with the example of Beijing and Chengdu. The results indicated that: (1) The proposed CEEMD—FE—WOA-LSTM—ELM model effectively integrates the characteristics of the original sequence and has the highest prediction accuracy among all the comparison models. (2) It is necessary to preprocess the data, which can effectively extract data features. Taking Beijing as an example, compared with the non-decomposition model, after adding the decomposition algorithm, the prediction accuracy rate (PA) is increased by 8.55% on average, the RMSE is decreased by 10.36 on average, and the MAPE is decreased by 6.11% on average. (3) The overall prediction level and prediction accuracy can be effectively increased by applying various prediction methods for recombination sequences with various frequency. The research results can provide references for urban air quality prediction.