Abstract
In Bangladesh, rapid population growth and associated land-use changes are escalating water scarcity issues, which will be further exacerbated under ongoing climate change. As such, predicting the consequences of climate and land-use change on freshwater supplies is critical for the sustainable management of water resources. In this study, a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) associated with a Land Cover Model (LCM) were used to simulate long-term stream flows in the Halda Basin, Bangladesh, under baseline and future climate and land-use change scenarios. In addition, the separate and combined impacts of both types of change on long-term streamflow projections were assessed. Results indicate that by the 2060s, the maximum temperature of the Halda Basin may rise by 1.6 °C in comparison to the baseline 1986–2005 period, while minimum temperature will also increase, albeit at a lower rate than maximum temperature. Precipitation during the dry season is expected to increase, although it may decline in the monsoon period. Simulations show that these changes in climate are likely to increase future streamflow in the Halda catchment, with monthly streamflow influenced mainly by the variability in precipitation. The LCM projected decreases in grassland along with cultivated land at the expense of artificial areas. Combined, future climate and land-use changes are projected to increase annual streamflow, with climate change likely to be a greater driver of altered streamflow than land-use changes. Our results should guide environmental management authorities in more sustainable and strategic water resource planning under global climate change.
Highlights
Water security is one of the most challenging environmental issues of the 21st century [1,2], with global warming resulting in an intensification of the hydrological cycle [3], altering the timing and allocation of freshwater resources [4]
The results presented provide a useful platform for regional and national stakeholders involved in water management to undertake sustainable planning for the use of freshwater resources in this region
We calculated the ratio of performance with a goodness of fit measure (R2 ) of 0.80 and NSE of 0.71 [47]
Summary
Water security is one of the most challenging environmental issues of the 21st century [1,2], with global warming resulting in an intensification of the hydrological cycle [3], altering the timing and allocation of freshwater resources [4]. Developing countries are vulnerable to the adverse effects of global climate change, due to their lower capacity for adaptation and mitigation, high population density and poverty [6]. This includes Bangladesh, one of the most densely populated countries in the world. This country’s rapid population growth and economic development have resulted in the excessive withdrawal of freshwater supplies, causing water scarcity. More effective monitoring of freshwater dynamics and quality is vital for managing river basins and reconciling water availability and demand (e.g., [9,10])
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