Combined Forecast of China’s Steel Demand

Abstract

This research conducts an error analysis between forecasting value and actual value of steel demand in China both in 2010, which is based on the analysis of forecasting methods and their results of Chinese steel demand in the existing studies, and then forecasts China’s steel demand in 2015 by making use of a combined forecasting method. The combined forecasting method includes two stages. In the first stage, with reference to actual steel demand of China in 2010, a threshold is set and some forecasting results are selected according to the error between forecasting value and actual value of steel demand of each method. In the second stage, weights of combined forecast of corresponding selected methods are determined which are based on the error. And the final demand of China’s steel in 2015 is forecasted through combined forecasting method.