Combined Effects of Climate and Pests on Fig (Ficus carica L.) Yield in a Mediterranean Region: Implications for Sustainable Agricultural Strategies

Abstract

Fig cultivation has long been an agricultural tradition in the Mediterranean region, providing economic and social benefits to local communities. Understanding fig tree yield response to the rapid invasions of fig pests and shifts in climatic conditions is essential for developing appropriate sustainable agricultural strategies. In this context, we investigate whether rapid changes in climate and pest invasions have had a combined effect on fig (Ficus carica L.) tree yield. We used data collected over 10 years in Bejaïa province, Algeria, and conducted a regression analysis to investigate the relationship between fig tree yield and two key factors. Results revealed a significant warming trend (0.057 °C yr−1), and a decrease in precipitation (−27.1 mm yr−1), in the region. Multiple pests, including pathogenic fungi (Diaporthe cinerascens, Fusarium spp.) and ravaging bark beetles (Hypocryphalus scabricollis), have spread in the region. Fig tree yield declined by 25% during the study period and was affected by both factors. Our findings provide valuable insights that can aid farmers and practitioners in mitigating risks that arise from the combined effects of climate change and pest invasions, thereby promoting sustainable farming practices.