Abstract

To assess risk factors related to the development of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) including smoking and occupational exposure (OE) to dusts, gases or fumes, we performed a longitudinal 11-year follow-up postal survey. The original study population was a random population sample of 8000 inhabitants of Helsinki aged 20 to 69 years in 1996. Participants of the first postal questionnaire were invited to this follow-up survey in 2007 with 4302 (78%) answers obtained. Cumulative incidence of COPD in 11 years was 3.43% corresponding to an incidence rate of 3.17/1000/year after exclusion of those with self-reported physician-diagnosed COPD and ever COPD in 1996. Smoking and age, but not gender, were associated with incident COPD. Reported family history of COPD increased the cumulative incidence to 8.55% vs 3.04% among those without a family history (p < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, significant independent risk factors for incident COPD were: current smoking in 1996 (OR 4.40 [95% CI 2.89–6.71]), age over 50 (OR 3.42 [95% CI 2.22–5.26]), family history of COPD (OR 2.08 [1.27–3.43]), ever asthma (OR 2.28 [1.35–3.86]), and self-reported OE (OR 2.14 [1.50–3.05]). Occupational exposure to dusts, gases or fumes, assessed both based on self-reported exposure and a job exposure matrix using reported professions, was an independent risk factor for incident COPD. Smoking and OE together yielded an additive effect on incidence of COPD.

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