Combined climate change and dispersal capacity positively affect Hoplobatrachus chinensis occupancy of agricultural wetlands

Abstract

Global warming significantly impacts amphibian populations globally, and modeling helps understand these effects. Here, we used MaxEnt and MigClim models to predict the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for Hoplobatrachus chinensis. Our results indicate that temperature is a key factor affecting H.chinensis distribution. Increasing temperatures positively correlated with habitat suitability, with suitable habitat expanding northward by 2060 while maintaining suitability in the southern parts of the range. We found a 25.18% overlap between the current potential suitable habitat of H.chinensis and agricultural wetlands. Our model indicated that H.chinensis might be able to track shifts in suitable habitats under climate change given a 15km dispersal ability per generation. Climate change will likely expand suitable habitat for H.chinensis. Our predictions offer important guidance for the conservation of the species, especially for the integrated role of natural and agricultural wetlands such as rice paddies.