Abstract
Quantifying a set of suitable physics parameterization schemes for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is essential for obtaining highly accurate typhoon forecasts. In this study, a systematic Tukey-based combinatorial optimization method was proposed to determine the optimal physics schemes of the WRF model for 15 typhoon simulations over the Northwest Pacific Ocean, covering all available schemes of microphysics (MP), cumulus (CU), and planetary boundary layer (PBL) physical processes. Results showed that 284 scheme combination searches were sufficient to find the optimal scheme combinations for simulations of track (km), central sea level pressure (CSLP, hPa), and 10 m maximum surface wind (10-m wind, m s−1), compared with the 700 sets of full combinations (i.e., 10 MP × 7 CU × 10 PBL). The decrease in the typhoon simulation error (i.e., root mean square error between simulation and observations) with this optimal scheme combination was 34%, 33.92%, and 25.67% for the track, CSLP, and 10-m wind, respectively. Overall, the results demonstrated that the optimal scheme combination yields reasonable results, and the Tukey-based optimization method is very effective and efficient in terms of computational resources.
Highlights
Typhoons are strong cyclonic vortexes stemming from the tropical oceans under conditions of high sea-surface temperatures and weaker shear winds
The cost function was the root mean square error (RMSE) between the three-day simulations and the observations for the track and intensity of the 15 typhoons, where the significance level was set to 5%
The optimal scheme combination was probably not included in 140 of the 700 scheme combinations, it could be eventually found through the recombination of multiple rounds of schemes using quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) sampling and deletion of the worst-performing schemes using the Tukey’ test in each round combination
Summary
Typhoons are strong cyclonic vortexes stemming from the tropical oceans under conditions of high sea-surface temperatures and weaker shear winds. With their frequent occurrences, extremely strong winds, precipitations, and occasional storm surges, typhoons cause considerable human, environmental, and financial losses, and they represent a severe threat to the people and environment of East Asia, such as in China, Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines. With the increase in observation tools and the development of supercomputing technology, mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have become essential tools for forecasting the evolution of typhoons. Atmosphere 2019, 10, 233 representations of the mesoscale model itself.
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