Combination of Body Mass Index and Fasting Blood Glucose Improved Predictive Value of New-Onset Prediabetes or Diabetes After Acute Pancreatitis: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

Abstract

ObjectivesWe sought to evaluate whether combining body mass index (BMI) and fasting blood glucose (FBG) can refine the predictive value of new-onset prediabetes/diabetes after acute pancreatitis (NODAP).MethodsIn this retrospective cohort study, we used Kaplan–Meier analysis to compare differences in the NODAP rate among 492 patients with different BMI or FBG levels, or with the combination of these 2 factors mentioned above.ResultsIn all, 153 of 492 (31.1%) eligible patients finally developed NODAP. According to univariate and multivariate analyses, BMI (hazard ratio, 2.075; 95% confidence interval, 1.408–3.060; P < 0.001) and FBG (hazard ratio, 2.544; 95% confidence interval, 1.748–3.710; P < 0.001) were important predictors of the incidence of NODAP. Subsequently, we divided 492 eligible patients into 3 groups according to the median BMI and FBG values, and found that the NODAP rate in the high-risk group was significantly higher than that in the medium-risk group (P = 0.018) or the low-risk group (P < 0.001).ConclusionsBody mass index and FBG are independent predictors of NODAP. The combination of BMI and FBG can refine the prediction of NODAP and identify candidates for clinical prevention.