Combinando modelos hidrológicos tradicionais e aprendizado de máquina para previsão de vazão

Abstract

ABSTRACT Traditional hydrological models have been widely used in hydrologic studies, providing credible representations of reality. This paper introduces a hybrid model that combines the traditional hydrological model Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure (SMAP) with the machine learning algorithm XGBoost. Applied to the Sobradinho watershed in Brazil, the hybrid model aims to produce more precise streamflow forecasts within a three-month horizon. This study employs rainfall forecasts from the North America Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) as inputs of the SMAP to produce streamflow forecasts. The study evaluates NMME forecasts, corrects bias using quantile mapping, and calibrates the SMAP model for the study region from 1984 to 2010 using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). Model evaluation covers the period from 2011 to 2022. An XGBoost model predicts SMAP residuals based on the past 12 months, and the hybrid model combines SMAP's streamflow forecast with XGBoost residuals. Notably, the hybrid model outperforms SMAP alone, showing improved correlation and Nash-Sutcliffe index values, especially during periods of lower streamflow. This research highlights the potential of integrating traditional hydrological models with machine learning for more accurate streamflow predictions.