Abstract

Abstract The removal of noise typically correlated in time and wavelength is one of the main challenges for using the radial-velocity (RV) method to detect Earth analogues. We analyze τ Ceti RV data and find robust evidence for wavelength-dependent noise. We find that this noise can be modeled by a combination of moving average models and the so-called “differential radial velocities.” We apply this noise model to various RV data sets for τ Ceti, and find four periodic signals at 20.0, 49.3, 160, and 642 days, which we interpret as planets. We identify two new signals with orbital periods of 20.0 and 49.3 days while the other two previously suspected signals around 160 and 600 days are quantified to a higher precision. The 20.0 days candidate is independently detected in Keck data. All planets detected in this work have minimum masses less than with the two long-period ones located around the inner and outer edges of the habitable zone, respectively. We find that the instrumental noise gives rise to a precision limit of the High Accuracy Radial Velocity Planet Searcher (HARPS) around 0.2 m s−1. We also find correlation between the HARPS data and the central moments of the spectral line profile at around 0.5 m s−1 level, although these central moments may contain both noise and signals. The signals detected in this work have semi-amplitudes as low as 0.3 m s−1, demonstrating the ability of the RV technique to detect relatively weak signals.

Highlights

  • The radial velocity (RV) technique is one of the most successful methods used to detect exoplanets

  • We introduce a wavelength dependent noise model by linearly combining moving average models with differential RVs

  • We find that binning RVs over time would change both the signals and noise in the data due to the lack of an appropriate weighting function

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Summary

INTRODUCTION

The radial velocity (RV) technique is one of the most successful methods used to detect exoplanets. The relation between the indicators and their RV counterparts could be very complex and is not necessarily deterministic, leading to controversial results in the validation of planetary candidates (e.g., Robertson et al 2014; Anglada-Escude & Tuomi 2015) This incomplete modeling of RV noise together with a lack of consensus on the most appropriate and efficient statistical methods are limiting the abilities of RV analysis to detect Earth analogues (see Feng et al 2016 for details). We use a combination of moving average models and the differential RVs to remove wavelength and time dependent noise We apply this model to the HARPS measurements of τ Ceti, which may host a multi-planetary system according to previous analyses (Tuomi et al 2013; hereafter MT13).

RADIAL VELOCITY DATA OF τ CETI
DATA ANALYSIS METHODS
Wavelength dependent noise models
Removing wavelength dependent noise
Modeling instrumental noise
Choosing the optimal noise model
Performance of the Goldilocks noise model
KEPLERIAN SIGNALS
Primary signals
Comparing signals detected in different data sets
Curse of eccentricity
Instrumental bias of HARPS
Four planet system
Comparison with previous studies
Dynamical stability and habitability analysis
DISCUSSIONS AND CONCLUSIONS
CORRELATION BETWEEN NOISE PROXIES
Findings
WAVELENGTH-DEPENDENCE OF MODEL PARAMETERS
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