Abstract
The signatory countries of the Paris Agreement must submit their updated Intended National Determined Contributions (INDCs) to the UNFCCC secretariat every five years. In Colombia, this activity was historically carried out with a wide set of diverse non-interconnected sector-specific models. Given the complexity of GHG emissions reporting and the evaluation of mitigation actions on a national scale, the need for a centralized platform was evident. Such approach would allow the integration and analysis of potential interactions among sectors, as well as to guarantee the homogeneity of assumptions and input parameters. In this paper, we describe the construction of an integrated bottom-up LEAP model tailored to the Colombian case, which covers all IPCC sectors. An integrated model facilitates capturing synergies and intersectoral interactions within the national GHG emissions system. Hence, policies addressing one sector and influencing others are identified and correctly assessed. Thus, 44 mitigation policies and mitigation actions were included in the model, in this way, identifying the sectors directly and being indirectly affected by them. The mitigation scenario developed in this paper reaches a reduction of 28% of GHG emissions compared with the reference scenario. The importance of including non-energy sectors is evident in the Colombian case, as GHG emission reductions are mainly driven by AFOLU. The first section describes the GHG emissions context in Colombia. Next, we describe the model structure, main input parameters, assumptions, considerations, and used LEAP functionalities. Results are presented from a GHG emissions accounting and energy demand perspective. The model allows for the correct estimate of the scope and potential of mitigation actions by considering indirect, unintended emissions reductions in all IPCC categories, as well as synergies with all mitigation actions included in the mitigation scenario. Moreover, the structure of the model is suitable for testing potential emission trajectories, facilitating its adoption by official entities and its application in climate policymaking.
Highlights
Committing to greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) reductions at the national and local level is necessary to minimize the climatic effects of global warming and increase the chances of not exceeding 2 ◦ C in global temperature increase
This paper describes the process of developing—in the Long Emissions Analysis Platform software (LEAP)—a Colombia-tailored model (COL-NDC) to formulate the baseline emission trajectory for Colombia’s 2020 Intended National Determined Contributions (INDCs) update and assess future energy needs, as part of a project jointly requested by the Colombian government and the World Bank
Emissions grow with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.7%, while the economy grow by approximately 3.5% each year
Summary
Committing to greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) reductions at the national and local level is necessary to minimize the climatic effects of global warming and increase the chances of not exceeding 2 ◦ C in global temperature increase. Colombia has a GHG emissions profile dominated by the Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector, which in 2014 accounted for 54% of total emissions [2]. In 2014, the transport sector was responsible for 12% of the national GHG emissions, while energy industries accounted for 10% [2]. The Colombian Low-Carbon Development Strategy (CLCDS) provided the framework for the discussion processes and modeling effort leading to the previous INDC formulation in 2015 [3]. In this process, several stakeholders such as the Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development (MADS), the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), the National Planning Department (DNP), and academia had an important role
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