Collision Risk Modelling of Supply Vessels and Offshore Platforms Under Uncertainty

Abstract

Serious accidents in the marine and offshore industry have underscored the need for safety evaluation of maritime operations using risk and safety analysis methods which have become a powerful tool in identifying technical solutions and operational management procedures. Given that Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is a known methodology used for analysing engineering systems, the approach is usually conducted using known failure data. But most offshore operations are conducted in a challenging and uncertain environment and the failure data of some of these systems are usually unavailable requiring a flexible and yet robust algorithm for their analysis. This paper therefore seeks to analyse the complex structure of Offshore Supply Vessel (OSV) collision with platforms by incorporating a Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FFTA) method. Fuzzy set theory provides the flexibility to represent vague information from the analysis process. The methodology is structured in such a manner that diverse sets of data are integrated and synthesized for analysing the system. It is envisaged that the proposed method could provide the analyst with a framework to evaluate the risks of collision enabling informed decisions regarding the deployments of resources for system improvement.