Collision risk assessment in Jiangsu section of the Yangtze River based on evidential reasoning

Abstract

Collision between ships is one of the dominant types of accidents in the Jiangsu section of the Yangtze River, accounting for over 60% of the accidents. An evidential reasoning (ER) approach is introduced to perform a quantitative assessment of the safety of the whole waterway by dividing it into 17 sub-sections. The Risk Influencing Factors (RIFs) including channel condition, navigation environment and navigation aids conditions are considered and further decomposed into several sub-factors. The expert knowledge is used to quantify the relative importance of the RIFs to the collision risk. The historical data is used to make the Basic Probability Assignments (BPAs) of the belief structures. The hazard index (HI) is used as a measure of collision risk. The results indicate that Kouanzhi Waters and Jiaoshan Waters carry much higher collision risk than other waters, whereas Nanjing Waters and Fanjiafan Waters have the lowest collision risk. The results are useful for the maritime safety management in the Jiangsu section of the Yangtze River.