Collision Probability for Earth-Crossing Asteroids Using Orbital Ranging

Abstract

We introduce new techniques for the computation of the collision probability for Earth-crossing asteroids in the case of short observational arcs and/or small numbers of observations. The techniques rely on the orbital element probability density computed using statistical orbital ranging. We apply the techniques to the Earth-crossing asteroid 1998 OX4with non-vanishing collision probability in numerous close approaches after the year 2012 (inclusive). We study the invariance of the collision probability in transformations between different orbital element sets, and develop a Spearman rank correlation measure for the validity of the linear approximation. We introduce an optimized, fast version of the statistical ranging method.