Collection of IDHEAS-based human error probability data for nuclear power plant commissioning through expert elicitation

Abstract

Human error probability (HEP) is one of the most important indicators to assess human reliability. In this study, we collected nominal HEP (NHEP) data for nuclear power plant commissioning through a formal expert elicitation process. Cognitive failure modes (CFMs) were adapted from the Integrated Human Event Analysis System (IDHEAS) method, and included three different detail levels. Obtained NHEP values for detection, understanding, action execution, and inter-team coordination seem to be consistent with those in IDHEAS-ECA, while the NHEP for decision-making is significantly lower than that in IDHEAS-ECA. Several challenges have been identified, which are related with the IDHEAS-based CFMs and the expert elicitation process. Because the IDHEAS-based CFMs are technology neutral and reflect the failures of human cognition, the obtained NHEP values could be applicable in other application domains.