Collaborative Proposal to Extend ONR YIP research with BRC Efforts

Abstract

Abstract : The long-term scientific goals of this research project are as follows: (1) to develop an understanding of how some sources of error affect ocean predictability, and (2) to develop ideas for overcoming limitations to the predictability of oceanic processes. The primary objectives of this project are to understand the importance of model uncertainty, assess the influence of uncertainty on predictability, and collaborate and learn from fellow BRC projects. The ocean model used in this research is the ONR-funded Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), a free-surface, hydrostatic, primitive equation ocean model discretized with a terrain-following vertical coordinate system. The model has multiple sub-gridscale parameterizations of vertical mixing along with many options for open boundary conditions. Time-splitting of barotropic and baroclinic motions enables efficient time integration. ROMS has been successfully used to model many regions of the world ocean and is a widely used community resource. During the current reporting period, we have worked to understand the impact of internal waves on the predictability of the oceans of Hawaii and the North Philippine sea. We have performed sensitivity experiments to identify how the mesoscale can change the generation and propagation of internal waves. In conjunction with my YIP award, we are working to understand how internal waves affect observations in the ocean. Specifically, we have built an operational, real-time assimilation and prediction system for the main Hawaiian islands. This system provides a foundation laboratory for research into state estimation and predictability.