Collaborative management of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam increases economic benefits and resilience

Mohammed Basheer,Victor Nechifor,Khalid Siddig,Mikiyas Etichia,Dale Whittington,Julien J Harou,Alvaro Calzadilla,David Hulme

doi:10.1038/s41467-021-25877-w

Abstract

The landscape of water infrastructure in the Nile Basin is changing with the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Although this dam could improve electricity supply in Ethiopia and its neighbors, there is a lack of consensus between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt on the dam operation. We introduce a new modeling framework that simulates the Nile River System and Egypt’s macroeconomy, with dynamic feedbacks between the river system and the macroeconomy. Because the two systems “coevolve” throughout multi-year simulations, we term this a “coevolutionary” modeling framework. The framework is used to demonstrate that a coordinated operating strategy could allow the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam to help meet water demands in Egypt during periods of water scarcity and increase hydropower generation and storage in Ethiopia during high flows. Here we show the hydrological and macroeconomic performance of this coordinated strategy compared to a strategy that resembles a recent draft proposal for the operation of the dam discussed in Washington DC.

Highlights

The landscape of water infrastructure in the Nile Basin is changing with the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
Our analysis shows that stochasticity in river flow has economy-wide implications, especially for economies like Egypt that are heavily dependent on rivers with large annual variations in flow
Considering the coevolution of economic growth and resource supply and demand in simulating interventions in transboundary river systems enables analysts to better characterize the interdependencies between natural, engineered, and economic systems. This multisector dynamic analysis should be complemented with an assessment of the environmental and social effects that are not captured in macroeconomic indicators such as GDP52,53

Summary

Introduction

The framework is used to demonstrate that a coordinated operating strategy could allow the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam to help meet water demands in Egypt during periods of water scarcity and increase hydropower generation and storage in Ethiopia during high flows. Empirical evidence of uni- and bidirectional relationships between energy consumption and economic development have been documented in countries around the world[3,4,5,6]. The Nile is one of the longest rivers in the world and has a basin that extends over 11 African countries, each with a different contribution to and economic dependence on the river[11,12]. High inter- and intra-annual variabilities characterize the Blue Nile streamflow, with around 80% of the flow occurring from July to October[14]

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