Abstract
Demand for agricultural food production is projected to increase dramatically in the coming decades, putting at risk our clean water supply and prospects for sustainable development. Fragmentation-free land allocation (FF-LA) aims to improve returns on ecosystem services by determining both space partitioning of a study area and choice of land-use/land-cover management practice (LMP) for each partition under a budget constraint. In the context of large-scale industrialized food production, fragmentation (e.g., tiny LMP patches) discourages the use of modern farm equipment (e.g., 10- to 20-m-wide combine harvesters) and must be avoided in the allocation. FF-LA is a computationally challenging NP-hard problem. We introduce three frameworks for land allocation planning, namely collaborative geodesign, spatial optimization and a hybrid model of the two, to help stakeholders resolve the dilemma between increasing food production capacity and improving water quality. A detailed case study is carried out at the Seven Mile Creek watershed in the midwestern US. The results show the challenges of generating near-optimal solutions through collaborative geodesign, and the potential benefits of spatial optimization in assisting the decision-making process.
Highlights
The rising human population, projected to reach 9 billion by 2050 [1], is expected to dramatically increase the demand for agricultural food production, placing significant pressure on soil and water sustainability
Modeling the interactions among land management practices, food production and water quality at different locations, and identifying more effective land allocations are important for improving agricultural watershed sustainability
Our second framework for solving the fragmentation-free land allocation (FF-LA) problem is based on spatial optimization
Summary
The rising human population, projected to reach 9 billion by 2050 [1], is expected to dramatically increase the demand for agricultural food production, placing significant pressure on soil and water sustainability. Modeling the interactions among land management practices, food production and water quality at different locations, and identifying more effective land allocations are important for improving agricultural watershed sustainability. This has been identified by conservation groups, agricultural producers, and agribusiness as a core strategy for sustainable development. Spatial optimization offered promising solutions which could potentially help stakeholders balance conflicting objectives and assist their discussion towards a final implementation plan. This motivates further study on the hybrid framework which integrates spatial optimization into collaborative geodesign
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