Cold Anomaly Over Nova Zembla–Ural Mountains: A Precursor for the Summer Long‐Lived Heat Wave in Northeast Asia?

Abstract

AbstractRecent studies suggest that, on the interannual time scale, there exists a wave‐train teleconnection that associates the cold anomaly over Nova Zembla–Ural Mountains (CNU) with the summer heat waves (HW) in Northeast Asia (NEA). Here, we used 1979–2020 NCEP‐NCAR reanalysis to investigate, on the synoptic‐scale, the characteristics of NEA‐HWs and their association with CNU. Analyses reveal the CNU usually leads the HW, and its significant signal strengthens about 6‐day before long‐lived (last 5‐day and more) HWs, which account for 27.8% and 54%, respectively, of the total 252 HW events and 956 HW days. Aided by Linear Baroclinic Model simulations, we conclude that the enhanced and slow‐moving CNU further stimulates and maintains the anticyclonic anomalies over NEA by strengthening the atmospheric blocking and the amplitude of the wave‐train, resulting in longer HWs. The potential use of the lagged association for HW forecasting is discussed.