Cold-air outbreaks over the ocean at high latitudes and associated mesoscale atmospheric circulations: Problems of numerical modelling

Abstract

A review of the current state of research in the field of numerical modelling and forecasting of cold-air outbreaks over the ocean at high latitudes and associated mesoscale circulations is presented. It is shown that the most relevant tasks are as follows: (1) the improvement of predictability and the adequacy of reproduction of polar mesocyclones, (2) a more adequate representation of the marginal sea-ice zone in the numerical models, and (3) solving problems of the parametrization and explicit reproduction of organized convection and orographic jets in numerical atmosphere models. It is demonstrated that these tasks only can be accomplished as a result of a comprehensive development of different components of the climatic system models and technology of the numerical weather prediction (NWP). One of the most promising approaches to overcome the identified problems is to develop and use methods of satellite remote sensing of the atmosphere and underlying surface in NWP technology. The high potential of analyzing the satellite multisensor data for quantifying parameters of different-scale atmospheric circulations is demonstrated using the example of cold-air outbreaks over the seas of the Far East.